MLB prop picks: 3 best bets for Thursday (June 20)

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As today is a travel day in the MLB, we have a lighter slate of games, but we were still able to find three home run predictions that we really liked.

With the first game starting around 1 p.m. ET, let’s get right into it.

Play 1: Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+375) BetRivers

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, 3:10PM ET

We went with the Dodgers’ Will Smith a couple days ago to no luck, but he has an awesome matchup to hit a home run today, so let’s go back to him and hope he rights those wrongs. The logic for backing Smith is pretty similar in that you want to target him when he goes up against a left-handed pitcher, which is what he is facing tonight in Ty Blach for the Rockies.

Despite being a pitcher for the Rockies and throwing a lot at Coors Field, Blach admittedly does not have horrible home run numbers, but he is slightly worse against right-handed hitters. Blach has given up six home runs on the year, five of which have come against righties. This is also a good matchup for Smith considering the pitch-mix of Blach as well. Blach mostly throws sinkers (54% of the time), changeups (23% of the time) or cutters (15% of the time), and those just so happen to be three pitches that Smith hits well and for power.

As mentioned, Smith is also much better against lefty pitchers in general. His ISO rate against LHP is .303, which would be the fourth-best number in the MLB if you extrapolated that out to all qualified batters, and his slugging of .667 would be the second-best only behind Aaron Judge. His fly-ball rate, pull-rate and HardHit rate are all higher against LHP as well. Smith generally tries to put the ball in the air, as evidenced by his 13th-highest launch angle and his 11th-highest fly-ball rate, which always helps with home runs.

Play 2: Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+400) Fanatics

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins, 1:10PM ET

Minnesota 3B Royce Lewis has been absolutely on fire, so it is somewhat surprising that we are still getting +400 odds on him to hit a home run. He has only played in 14 games this year due to an injury suffered at the beginning of the season, but in those 14 games, he has an astonishing eight home runs, giving him an ISO rate of .520. For context, the best ISO rate in MLB history was Barry Bonds in 2001 with an ISO rate of .536 when he hit 73 home runs.

While that number for Lewis is bound to come down at some point, he has shown no signs of slowing down, so let’s back him as long as he stays hot. It is not only his ISO rate, either, as all of his advanced metrics look phenomenal. His barrel rate is 18.6% (anything above 15% is considered “excellent” by FanGraphs), which would be the third-highest barrel rate in the MLB if he had enough at-bats to qualify.

His fly-ball rate of 48.8% would put him tied with Will Smith for the 11th-highest in the MLB and his pull-rate of 48.8% would put him at 14th-highest in the MLB. This is another batter-pitcher matchup that should heavily favor the batter, as Lewis crushes 4-seam fastballs and sliders, which is what Rays pitcher Zack Littell throws 66% of the time (40% slider and 26% 4-seam).

Play 3: Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+480) BetRivers

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:10PM ET

Lastly, let’s go with a guy who has come through for us a couple times in the past but has admittedly been in a slump recently. One of the better ways to break out of a slump is to go up against a pitcher that you have taken yard twice already in your career, which is what we are looking at with Cleveland third baseman Ramirez going up against Luis Castillo of the Mariners.

Ramirez has 14 at-bats against Castillo. In those 14 at-bats, he has four hits total, with two home runs and a triple, with a .286 average, but an impressive three extra-base hits. On the season, Ramirez has the 10th-best ISO rate in the MLB at .256, and he is one of only 14 batters that have an “excellent” season-long ISO rate of .250 or above. He is also tied for seventh in the MLB with 18 home runs, and the reason he has been able to hit so many home runs is because he consistently looks to put the ball in the air.

His fly-ball rate of 50.2% is the sixth-highest in the MLB, and his average launch angle of 19.1 degrees is 18th. Castillo is a decent pitcher overall, but he is worse against lefties, and since Ramirez is a switch-hitter, he will be batting lefty against Castillo. Castillo has given up 11 home runs on the year, seven of which have come to lefty batters despite facing fewer left-handed hitters. The main reason why he has given up more home runs to lefties is because his fly-ball rate jumps from 39% against RHH to 50% against LHH, which would be the second-highest fly-ball rate in the MLB. That lines up perfectly with how Ramirez likes to go yard, making this a great matchup for Ramirez to hit a dinger.

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