RBA governor fronts estimates
Peter Hannam
The Reserve Bank’s governor, Michele Bullock, is appearing at Senate estimates this morning, and unsurprisingly the opposition – led by Liberal senator Jane Hume – is stressing the “very weak economy”.
Asked about today’s March quarter national accounts figures (due to land at 11.30am Aest), Bullock said she expects GDP growth “to be quite low”.
The market agrees, with economists tipping 0.2% quarter on quarter growth and an annual pace of 1.2%. (The December quarter posted 0.2% and 1.4% growth, respectively, and both might be revised.)
Bullock (slightly surprisingly) didn’t know the answer the question of how many quarters in a row have had no growth or a retreat in per capita growth. She said, “one or two”, when actually the last quarter of GDP per capita growth was the December quarter of 2022, so today’s numbers should make it five quarters of no growth. (The first of that series, the March quarter of last year, was flat.)
The Australian economy, though, is still on its “narrow path” of slowing without stalling. Inflation is in retreat but “coming down only slowly”.
The next RBA board meeting is on 17-18 June, and for now, markets aren’t expecting the central bank to move its cash rate from 4.35%.
Key events
Eden Gillespie
Townsville council has passed a unanimous motion of no-confidence in its embattled mayor Troy Thompson.
Councillor Brodie Phillips brought forward the motion on Wednesday morning for the council to;
1- Resolve that the council does not have confidence in the mayor
2- Request the mayor resign from his position
3- Remove the mayor as the council’s representatives on all bodies, committees and boards, except when his membership or representation is required by law
4- Ensure the operational arm of the council notify all councillors when the mayor meets or seeks to meet with any members of the body
5- Ensure the CEO of the council writes to the CEO of the department of the local government requesting they recommend the minister either suspend the mayor “pending the outcome of relevant investigations into his conduct” or dismiss him if “the information which is publicly available… is sufficient.”
Greens blast lack of movement on domestic violence support criteria
Going through the late-night estimates hearings, the community affairs estimates hearings spent some time looking over the some of the escaping violence payments the Albanese government has been promoting as part of its domestic and gendered violence policy response.
The Greens’ Larissa Waters, who led the questioning of the social services department, learned there was to be no changes to the eligibility requirements to receive $5,000 in financial support despite 17% of applicants being found to be ineligible and up to half of people who apply not receiving the payment.
Waters:
Restrictive criteria doesn’t help keep women safe, it forces them to stay in unsafe relationships and living situations.
The Department confirmed last night that at least 17% of women seeking the current escaping violence payment are being rejected, but there are no plans to change the criteria.
One of the reasons for ineligibility for the program is a lack of a safety plan to move soon – this is not an inherent skill, it should be standard practice to support women to establish one, not a reason for rejection.
Waters said the eligibility requirements were out of date:
Six women killed by violence this year were allegedly murdered by their sons. Escaping violent homes is not limited to escaping intimate partners, so the payment shouldn’t be either.
Even though it takes an average of seven times before a woman is able to finally leave an abusive relationship, you can’t get the Escaping Violence Payment more than once within a 12 month period.
The department was also unable to provide details about the time women have to wait between first request for payment and actually receiving it.
Waters also said without meaningful funding increases to frontline services, the referral pathways didn’t meet their goals.
What good is it to refer someone to a support service that is already full?
We are still no closer to understanding how many women are turned away from frontline services due to funding constraints, because despite me asking for 2.5 years what’s being done to quantity unmet need, there is not even a timeframe for when a scoping project will complete.
Eden Gillespie
Troy Thompson removed as chairperson of Townsville council meetings
Townsville’s controversial mayor, Troy Thompson, was a no-show at council chambers on Wednesday morning after news the city’s councillors would bring a no-confidence motion against him.
A unanimous motion was carried on Wednesday morning to remove Thompson as the chairperson of the council meetings.
The deputy mayor, Paul Jacob, was instated as chair of the meeting but then stood aside from the position due to statements by Thompson on social media.
The reason I give is because of the perceived statements by the mayor that I, as a member of the Labor party, or the people in the Labor party, have brought about this situation and called it a witch hunt. So I would like to step down from that position now so I bring it to the councillors to appoint it.
The council then adjourned for a short break as the Townsville city council livestream crashed due to the site being overloaded.
Peter Hannam
Bullock says energy rebate unlikely to contribute to inflation
The RBA’s governor, Michele Bullock, is still being peppered with questions about inflation and the budget, this time from (former productivity commission economist) LNP senator Matt Canavan.
Canavan spends a bit of time asking about trimmed mean and other core inflation questions (look up the RBA’s statement on monetary policy if you want to know what they forecast).
He does, though, eventually zero-in on whether the government’s main new initiative (the $300 energy rebate per household) is likely to affect inflation. Bullock rightly highlights the fact the $300 will be spread over four quarterly instalments of $75 (which Canavan doesn’t seem to have twigged on).
She doesn’t think people are “going to go out and spend up big on that”.
“On the margin, I don’t think it’s going to have a big effect,” Bullock said. “It’s not that material.”
Daniel Hurst
Defence estimates hearing begins
The Defence estimates committee hearing has begun, with the Coalition seeking to prosecute the government’s mixed messages yesterday about opening up the Australian defence force to non-citizen applicants.
Officials have confirmed it applies only to New Zealand citizens from July and then the US, the UK and Canada from January.
There is a lot of talk of “widening the aperture” of eligibility to the ADF.
Bullock does not give answer on whether May budget was ‘expansionary’
The RBA’s governor, Michele Bullock, has dodged her first question about whether May’s federal budget was “contractionary or expansionary” and hence easing or stoking inflation in the economy.
The Liberal’s Jane Hume was hoping to hear Bullock say the budget was expansionary, saying that it contained $4 of extra spending for every dollar of extra revenue. (Not fact-checked, but it seems on the high side.)
Bullock didn’t give a clear answer since the issue is “not simple”. She named developments in China and elsewhere to say the RBA needed to take a lot into account.
The RBA’s May forecasts get updated in August and will take in the budget’s contribution then.
I think we can expect more questions about inflation and, say, whether the RBA accepts treasury’s (and the treasurer’s) line that energy rebates and other assistance “mechanically” lowers the consumer price index and therefore inflation.
Amanda Meade
News Corp chief says no regrets over ‘important’ Higgins case coverage
News Corp’s chief, Michael Miller, says he has no regrets about his media company’s coverage of the Brittany Higgins case. Miller was speaking on ABC Radio ahead of his National Press Club address about AI and the tech giants today.
I think [Higgins] was… an important case where varying views were put out in public and Australians deserve to know all the facts behind the case. As I say, it was one of national interest.
Q: News Corp has been accused of bullying people. There’s been an absolute obsession with Brittany Higgins, for instance. Do you think that’s appropriate? Is that using your social licence appropriately?
Miller: “No, I think that it’s been a very important case which all media have covered in a lot of detail.”
Miller denied News Corp had “weaponised” Higgins’ text messages which had not been heard in court, saying “I refute that”.
I don’t have regrets, no … I think it’s a very difficult and unfortunate period for Australia. I think that that could have been a moment from which we learn a lot more from as a nation.
Miller said phone hacking happened elsewhere in the organisation but had never happened in this country.
That is not a practice that has existed in the Australian market.
RBA governor fronts estimates
Peter Hannam
The Reserve Bank’s governor, Michele Bullock, is appearing at Senate estimates this morning, and unsurprisingly the opposition – led by Liberal senator Jane Hume – is stressing the “very weak economy”.
Asked about today’s March quarter national accounts figures (due to land at 11.30am Aest), Bullock said she expects GDP growth “to be quite low”.
The market agrees, with economists tipping 0.2% quarter on quarter growth and an annual pace of 1.2%. (The December quarter posted 0.2% and 1.4% growth, respectively, and both might be revised.)
Bullock (slightly surprisingly) didn’t know the answer the question of how many quarters in a row have had no growth or a retreat in per capita growth. She said, “one or two”, when actually the last quarter of GDP per capita growth was the December quarter of 2022, so today’s numbers should make it five quarters of no growth. (The first of that series, the March quarter of last year, was flat.)
The Australian economy, though, is still on its “narrow path” of slowing without stalling. Inflation is in retreat but “coming down only slowly”.
The next RBA board meeting is on 17-18 June, and for now, markets aren’t expecting the central bank to move its cash rate from 4.35%.
Liberals unhappy over Labor ‘bargaining chip’ defence committee position
There is a battle going on over the Albanese government proposal to leave open a spot on a new parliamentary defence committee for a crossbencher.
The new committee would join a handful of other permanent committees in the parliament, which – like the parliamentary joint committee on security and intelligence – would have quite a lot of power and influence over legislation (it is rare for the government not to accept recommendations of the intelligence and security committee, although it did happen under the Morrison government).
The Albanese government has one eye on the next election and the very real possibility it will be in minority government – and is leaving open the possibility a crossbencher could join the committee, rather than just have it Liberal-Labor.
The Liberal party is not happy – as Greens senator David Shoebridge notes.
Liberals are trying to stop the Greens from joining a new Defence committee because of policies like
-Be a good global citizen
-Close foreign bases & Pine Gap
-Renegote the US alliance
-End AUKUSCould you imagine if the ALP/Liberals had to consider these very popular policies! pic.twitter.com/BZGZLHdZC0
— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) June 4, 2024
Deepfake porn laws introduced but debate adjourned until next sitting
Mark Dreyfus is now introducing legislation which will criminalise the sharing of deepfake pornography images.
The debate has been adjourned until the next sitting.
House of Representatives begins session
The bells have rung and prayers have been delivered in the House of Representatives, signalling the start of the sitting session.
There is a bit of legislation to get through today, but the Senate won’t sit until the 24th, so the parliament won’t be passing legislation again until the end of the month (which is normal during the estimates period)
Tony Burke has just announced a reordering of business to get through some legislative business – which could mean the house sits until 10pm tonight. Apparently, at least one member wanted to “know the implications for State Of Origin this evening” but Burke said it is up to members to make up their minds on who speaks.
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